Two of Australia’s biggest listed residential developers have reported sharp falls in buyer interest. The official building data has not turned yet. The gap between the two is where builders’ next year of work gets decided.

ASX listed developer Stockland has just recorded its lowest quarter for buyer enquiries in the three years of data it publishes.

Stockland told the ASX on 19 October that enquiries across its masterplanned communities fell to 10,452 in the September quarter. A year earlier the figure was 36,551. That is a fall of 71 per cent.

Three days later, Mirvac reported that leads across its residential business fell 30 per cent on the June quarter. Its net deposits and lots exchanged fell 17 per cent over the same period, to 429.

Meanwhile the ABS is still recording more than 10,000 private houses approved every month.

Both things are true. Understanding why is the most useful thing a builder can take from this week’s numbers.

What do the Stockland numbers actually show?

The 71 per cent figure needs context before it means much.

Stockland’s September quarter 2025 was the biggest enquiry quarter in the series it publishes, which runs back to the September quarter of 2023. Measured against a record, almost any ordinary quarter looks like a collapse.

Sales tell a steadier story. Stockland sold 1,506 lots in the September quarter, down 29 per cent from 2,117 a year earlier and 22 per cent lower than the June quarter.

On our calculations from the company’s own chart, 1,506 lots is still about 34 per cent more than it sold in the September quarter of 2024. It is roughly where Stockland was in the March quarter of 2025.

The buyers still coming through the door also look more committed. Stockland reported that lower enquiry was partly offset by stronger conversion. By our estimate, about one in seven enquiries became a sale this quarter, against about one in seventeen a year earlier.

Where is demand falling hardest?

The slowdown is not even across the country.

NSW and the ACT recorded 70 net lot sales for Stockland in the quarter, against 178 a year earlier. That is the lowest figure in the series. The company pointed to affordability constraints in NSW.

Queensland carried much of Stockland’s growth through 2025. The company now says Queensland demand is slowing in line with the national market. Its Queensland sales fell from 809 lots to 627.

In WA, enquiries fell 77 per cent on a year earlier. Stockland described conditions there as more balanced, with demand now matched by supply.

Victoria was the steadiest. Stockland called it relatively stable at low levels, and its Victorian sales of 578 lots were down about 15 per cent on a year earlier.

Mirvac described a similar pattern. It said activity moderated most in NSW and Victoria, softened in Queensland and held up in WA.

Why does the official data still look strong?

Because it measures a later stage of the same process.

A land buyer enquires, signs a contract, arranges finance, signs a building contract, and then the builder lodges plans. Each step takes weeks or months. Approval data captures decisions made well before this quarter.

Approval data captures decisions made well before this quarter.

The latest ABS figures show private sector house approvals rose 3.7 per cent to 10,885 in August, 18.4 per cent higher than a year earlier. It was the eighth month in a row above 10,000.

Stockland’s backlog tells the same story from the developer’s side. It held 4,502 contracts on hand at the end of September, with cancellation and default rates below long run averages. It kept its target of 7,300 to 8,300 masterplanned community settlements this financial year.

Those settlements turn into house starts over the coming year. The weaker sales quarter flows through after that.

Apartments are a different story. Approvals for private dwellings other than houses fell 21.2 per cent in August, with Queensland leading the fall in apartment approvals.

Leading and lagging housing indicators

Leading indicators, such as developer enquiries, land sales and new loan commitments, record buyer decisions close to when they are made. Lagging indicators, such as building approvals, commencements and completions, record those same decisions months later, once contracts are signed and plans are lodged. When the two move in opposite directions, the leading indicators tend to show where the lagging ones are heading.

What is driving the slowdown?

Both developers point to the same two pressures: interest rates and tax changes.

The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60 per cent on 29 September, its fourth increase this year. In its decision statement, the Bank noted that housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and that new housing loans have declined noticeably.

Cotality’s Home Value Index fell 1.1 per cent in September, its sixth monthly fall in a row. National values are now 5.2 per cent below their March peak.

New investor loan commitments fell 8.6 per cent in the June quarter, according to ABS lending data, although they were still 2.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.

The tax side needs more care. Under the changes announced in the May budget, which are now law, negative gearing on residential property will be limited to new builds from 1 July 2027. The concession has not been taken away from the product Stockland and Mirvac sell.

That makes the tax change an indirect pressure rather than a direct one. Stockland’s land lease business pointed to customers taking longer to decide and to softer established market conditions. One explanation is that buyers who need to sell an existing home first are waiting, and a falling established market slows that chain.

What does this mean for builders’ pipelines?

For builders working in greenfield estates, today’s approvals numbers largely describe work already sold. Whether the next round of contracts arrives depends on the enquiry and sales figures being reported now.

Those figures say fewer buyers are entering the funnel, and those who do are taking longer to commit. Display traffic, land settlements and finance approvals are where that shift appears first, well before it reaches the monthly ABS release.

There are offsets. Conversion is up. Cancellations are low. Neither developer changed its full year earnings guidance, and Stockland’s average contracted price sits above what it achieved on settlements last financial year.

The ABS September approvals figures, due on 2 November, and its lending figures for the September quarter, due on 11 November, will be the first official test of whether the developer numbers are flowing through.

The gap between the data is the story

The headline number is the size of the fall. The more useful number is the distance between what developers are seeing now and what the official data still shows.

For the past two years, builders have watched approvals for signs of recovery. This quarter the developers are sending an earlier signal, and it points the other way.

It is not a collapse. Stockland’s sales are back to where they were in early 2025, not where they were in 2023. But for a business that sets its labour, cash flow and subcontractor commitments a year ahead, it is the signal that arrives first.

Frequently asked questions

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Last updated: 23 October 2026. Figures reflect Stockland’s 1Q27 update (19 October), Mirvac’s 1Q27 update (22 October), ABS Building Approvals for August 2026 and ABS Lending Indicators for the June quarter 2026.

General Information Only: This article provides general information only and does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. It does not take into account your particular circumstances. Before making any decisions, seek independent advice relevant to your situation. The Good Builder makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which was correct at the time of publication.

Author: TGB Editorial