A Warning Shot for Australia’s Housing System
White Picket Fence CEO Phil Leahy has issued one of the most direct calls yet for Australia to rethink how it delivers new homes, warning that without a renewed focus on greenfield development, the nation risks falling hundreds of thousands of homes short of its housing targets.
In his opinion piece titled “Greenfield Development. Solving Australia’s Housing Crisis One Lot at a Time”, Leahy says Australia’s approach to the housing crisis must change now, calling it a “once-in-a-generation opportunity to get this right.”
“All indicators point to a substantial shortfall,” he wrote. “If the shortage continues, rents and property prices will continue to escalate, pricing out future generations. Home ownership has been steadily in decline for decades, and it’s time to address the imbalance.”
Leahy warns that without greater equality in the housing market, the crisis will deepen into a social issue within the next decade.
Falling Behind the National Housing Accord
The National Housing Accord, signed in 2022, aims to deliver 1.2 million new homes by 2029, a target that requires roughly 240,000 homes per year. According to Leahy, the current trajectory falls alarmingly short.
“Only around 174,000 new homes commenced construction in the last 12 months,” he noted, citing ABS data. “That’s nearly 30 per cent below where we need to be.”
Recent figures show new home approvals have fallen to 170,719 in 2024, the second-lowest level in more than a decade.
Industry projections by the Property Council of Australia (PCA) echo Leahy’s concerns, predicting a shortfall of up to 500,000 homes against the 2029 target, and suggesting the market would need a 40 per cent uplift in activity just to catch up.
“The PCA recently foreshadowed that if the National Housing Accord targets aren’t met, a ‘housing affordability time bomb’ will be detonated,” Leahy wrote. “Our housing crisis is now at a dangerous turning point.”
Where the System Is Stuck
Leahy doesn’t lay blame on one factor alone. Instead, he points to a combination of economic, workforce, and planning bottlenecks that have slowed delivery across every housing type.
“Macroeconomics play a role, with housing affordability and inflation stifling the market,” he said, referencing cost pressures that have reduced both consumer confidence and developer margins.
Even as new first-home buyer incentives begin to roll out, Leahy says it will take time before their effect is felt, and those measures won’t solve the structural delays built into Australia’s housing system.
“Labour shortages and declining productivity in the construction sector have played a role in creating the bottleneck,” he wrote. “The government is looking at skilled migrants to help boost delivery – yet this also adds to our need for more housing.”
Perhaps most critically, Leahy points to delays in the planning system as a significant cause of housing lag. “New planning tools designed to increase dwellings in apartment buildings have resulted in developers going back to the drawing board, delaying thousands of new homes.”
Why Greenfield Development Holds the Key
In Leahy’s view, greenfield development, large-scale projects on previously undeveloped land, is Australia’s “secret weapon” to meeting its housing commitments.
“Greenfield development has a big role to play in meeting the National Housing Accord, as it can deliver at scale,” he said.
By focusing on large land parcels in metropolitan and regional hubs, the country can deliver thousands of new homes more efficiently than through infill or redevelopment sites.
“Greenfield sites unlock affordability and help to level the playing field with diversity in dwelling types,” he explained. “They offer apartments, townhouses, and detached homes, providing an affordable entry point to the market while catering to growing families.”
Leahy argues that lower land acquisition costs make these projects inherently more viable, especially for first-home buyers when government incentives are factored in.
“Affordability for buyers is driven by lower land acquisition costs for developers, relative to infill sites closer to the city,” he said. “This is enhanced for first homebuyers when government incentives are factored in, further reducing the price.”
The Case for Private Capital
Leahy believes private capital will be crucial to unlocking the full potential of greenfield projects.
“Backed by private capital, the greenfield development sector has the capacity to increase significantly and push us closer to the National Housing Accord targets,” he wrote.
He sees it as a pragmatic solution, one that avoids the delays of public funding and allows the private sector to scale up quickly, provided that planning frameworks and infrastructure investment align.
For developers, the model is compelling: lower land costs, clearer approval pathways, and higher potential yields make greenfield development a logical focus for the next phase of Australia’s housing strategy.
A Global Lens: What Australia Can Learn from Canada
Leahy also draws attention to Canada’s experience as a lesson in the consequences of unchecked population growth and constrained housing supply.
“Canada is experiencing a housing shortage spurred on by record immigration levels after the COVID-19 pandemic,” he wrote. “A rental crisis was created by this population boom, with rental vacancies falling to a record low and rental inflation soaring.”
According to the National Bank of Canada, the country faces a 450,000-unit rental shortage. To address this, the Canadian Government introduced an ‘immigration freeze’ until 2027, a controversial but effective measure.
“Early indicators show this approach is yielding results,” Leahy said, noting that rents have declined for eight consecutive months, now tracking 3.3 per cent below a year earlier.
He believes Australia should consider similar population management measures alongside planning reform. “Australia’s approach to the housing crisis needs to embrace a range of government policies beyond new planning pathways, such as slowing immigration rates,” he said. “We only have one chance to contain this housing crisis, and the time to act is now.”
A Call for Urgent Coordination
Leahy’s message is clear: Australia can’t rely on incremental policy changes or short-term subsidies. It needs a coordinated, national strategy that treats land supply, infrastructure, and migration policy as interconnected parts of the same equation.
“The solution won’t come from one department or one level of government,” he said. “It requires genuine collaboration between state and local governments, the private sector, and financial institutions.”
That includes addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, ensuring that transport, utilities, and community services are planned in tandem with new land releases.
“The opportunity is there,” he wrote. “We just need to align the system and get out of our own way.”
A Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity
For Leahy, the stakes are generational. Australia’s housing shortage isn’t just an economic issue, it’s a social contract problem that risks leaving future generations behind.
“If the shortage continues, rents and property prices will continue to escalate, pricing out future generations,” he said. “We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to get this right, and falling short simply isn’t an option.”
His closing line captures the urgency of the moment: “We only have one chance to contain this housing crisis, and the time to act is now.”
Summary
Phil Leahy’s position reflects a growing sentiment across the property and construction sectors: that greenfield development must become a central pillar of Australia’s housing response.
It’s a call not just for more homes, but for a smarter, more coordinated system, one that leverages private capital, modern planning, and long-term infrastructure thinking to build Australia’s future, one lot at a time.
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