MBIE’s pipeline forecast has multi unit homes and infrastructure driving growth to 2030. At the same time, a bill before Parliament would change who pays for building defects and make home warranties compulsory.

New Zealand’s next building cycle will not look like the last one. More of the work will be townhouses and apartments, more will be infrastructure, and if a bill now before Parliament passes, the rules on who pays when something goes wrong will change completely.

The pipeline is forecast to grow to NZ$65.4 billion by 2030

MBIE’s National Construction Pipeline Report 2025, prepared by BRANZ and Pacifecon and published in December 2025, forecasts total construction activity to fall to NZ$55.7 billion in 2025 before trending upward to NZ$65.4 billion in 2030.

Residential building is the main driver. MBIE forecasts residential activity will fall from NZ$29.2 billion in 2024 to NZ$26.1 billion in 2025, then climb to NZ$32.3 billion by 2030. Non residential building is forecast at NZ$13.5 billion in 2030.

Infrastructure is expected to rise gradually each year, reaching NZ$19.6 billion in 2030. By then, infrastructure would account for close to a third of all construction activity on MBIE’s numbers, which is a significant pull on civil contractors, plant and the labour that moves between civil and building work.

On the non residential side, MBIE notes the private sector holds 67.3% of building intentions in the pipeline, so the pace of that recovery will depend heavily on private investment decisions rather than government spending alone.

More than half of new homes will be multi unit

MBIE forecasts around 215,000 new dwellings will be consented over the six year forecast period. About 115,000 of those are expected to be multi unit dwellings, with their share of consents rising from 53% in 2024 to 56%. On MBIE’s forecast, annual dwelling consents grow from 33,500 in 2025 to 40,000 by 2030.

The market may be getting there faster than forecast. Stats NZ reported 40,908 new dwellings consented in the year to July 2026. That is a rolling twelve month figure rather than a calendar year, so it is not directly comparable with MBIE’s forecast, but it shows consents are already running at the level MBIE expected by the end of the decade.

The mix is shifting too. Of those 40,908 consents, 18,884 were stand alone houses. Townhouses, flats and units made up 17,829, apartments 2,509 and retirement village units 1,686. Multi unit homes are now more than half of all new dwellings consented.

That changes the work itself. Multi unit projects involve more coordination between trades, more shared elements such as fire and acoustic separation, more complex consenting and often a different relationship with the developer.

The Building Amendment Bill would change who pays for defects

The biggest change on the horizon is legal rather than physical. The Building Amendment Bill passed its first reading on 2 July 2026 and is now before a select committee. MBIE says submissions are open until 15 November 2026.

At its core is a move from joint and several liability to proportionate liability. Under the current approach, any one party found liable for a building defect can be pursued for the full loss, regardless of how much of it that party caused. Under the proposed model, each party would be responsible only for its own share.

Joint and several versus proportionate liability

Under joint and several liability, any party found liable for a loss can be required to pay all of it, and is then left to recover contributions from the others. Under proportionate liability, each party pays only the share of the loss that matches its responsibility. New Zealand’s Building Amendment Bill proposes moving building defect claims to the proportionate model.

The shift also changes the incentives. When each party answers only for its own share, clear records of who did what, who approved what and who signed off become every party’s own protection.

Clear records of who did what, who approved what and who signed off become every party’s own protection.

Home warranties would become mandatory

According to Building Performance, the bill would require home warranties for new houses, multi unit residential buildings up to ten metres high, and renovations of NZ$100,000 or more that involve restricted building work and need a building consent.

Warranty providers would have to register with MBIE and provide cover of at least one year for defects and ten years for structural defects. Design professionals such as architects and engineers would also be required to hold professional indemnity insurance.

Consenting is being sped up at the same time

The bill also carries consenting changes. They include a ten working day fast track for residential consents with solar or other sustainable features, cutting the processing time for project information memoranda from 20 to 10 working days, a path for building consent authorities to voluntarily consolidate, allowing off site granny flats to be built before a project information memorandum is issued, and merging the building research levy into the Building Levy.

Other changes are already in force. Since 15 January 2026, single storey stand alone granny flats of up to 70 square metres can be built without a building consent, provided licensed building practitioners do or supervise the work and a project information memorandum is obtained first. Development contributions may still apply.

Since August 2025, building consent authorities have been required to complete at least 80% of inspections within three working days. A self certification scheme for plumbers and drainlayers began on 7 September 2026, while a similar scheme for builders is still being developed. MBIE’s Going for Growth program also lists work to increase the use of remote inspections.

The election adds a timing question

The bill’s path is not guaranteed. New Zealand’s general election is on 7 November 2026, eight days before submissions close. Bills that have not passed when Parliament is dissolved can be reinstated by the new Parliament, but the timing of any final vote will depend on the government formed after the election.

A different industry on the other side of the downturn

Put the pieces together and the shape of the next cycle comes into view. More townhouses and apartments. More infrastructure. Faster consenting for some work, and more self certification. A liability regime in which each party answers for its own work, and a warranty system that puts a formal backstop behind new homes and major renovations.

For an industry that has lost firms and workers through the downturn, the question is not just whether the work returns. It is whether the businesses left standing are set up for the kind of work that is coming back.

Frequently asked questions

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• The New Zealand Recovery: What Surviving the Worst Construction Downturn Since 1991 Teaches Builders

Last updated 28 September 2026. Figures reflect the latest official releases available at that date.

General Information Only: This article provides general information only and does not constitute legal, financial, tax or professional advice. It does not take into account your particular circumstances. Figures and policy details are drawn from official sources current at the date of publication and may change. You should seek independent professional advice before acting on any information in this article.

Author: TGB Editorial