Six measures from our first State of Land reports, and what each one tells you about where you can actually buy and build.
Two states. Same data, same method, same 26 quarters. Queensland’s median lot price doubled. Victoria’s rose 31 per cent.
That is the headline, and it is close to useless.
That is not a criticism of the number. It is the reason we built these reports the way we did.
Our first two State of Land reports land [INSERT LAUNCH DATE], covering Queensland and Victoria, built on land data from Terralytics. The state comparison above is the least useful thing in either of them.
Queensland doubled, Victoria didn’t. That’s the headline. And honestly, it’s the least useful thing in either of the reports.
The useful part sits underneath it. Six measures, broken down corridor by corridor, that tell you whether you can buy land at all, whether you can start on it, and what you are actually paying for a square metre of dirt.
Here is what they are, and what to do with each one.
Where the numbers come from, and why that changes the weight you put on them
These reports are not built on building approvals, and not on median house prices. They use actual lot sales inside active estates across Queensland and Victoria, 26 straight quarters of them from 2020 through the middle of this year, with settlement data supplied by Terralytics.
Every release and every unsold lot is counted. Every lot is sorted by frontage and area, down to five centimetres and two square metres.
That last part is why we can tell you what a lot format costs rather than what a suburb costs. Those are different questions, and only one of them helps you price a job.
We also leave out land that developers are still holding back, because the question we are answering is what you can buy and build on now, not what might come to market in three years. The underlying land dataset is supplied by Terralytics.
1. Median lot price: read the direction, not the number
Queensland moved from around $250,000 to $525,000 in six years, a lift of roughly 110 per cent. Victoria over the same period rose 31 per cent.
Same country. Two entirely different markets.
The number itself is the least interesting part of it. What matters is the direction and the pace, because that is what tells you whether the land cost assumptions you built your last price list on still hold.
2. Months of supply: the first line to read on any corridor
Months of supply is how long the land currently on the market would last at the rate it is selling.
Queensland sits at 1.6 months. Victoria sits at 5.4.
Around three months is a reasonable balance. Below that, you are competing for stock. Above it, you have choice.
This is the one to check first, because it answers the most basic question in the chain. Will you be able to buy land at all.
3. Absorption rate: the early warning sign
Absorption is the same idea from the other end. What share of available lots clears in a month.
In Queensland, Logan is clearing around 98 per cent of available stock every month. Ipswich is at 96. Brisbane is clearing 10, and Brisbane is 45 minutes up the road.
Land sells and then slab goes down. So absorption tells you where the work is heading months before any approvals figure will actually tell you that.
That is the operational value. Approvals tell you what already happened, which is the standing limitation of most Australian construction industry trend data. Absorption tells you where to point your sales effort, your supervisors and your supplier conversations before the approvals catch up.
4. Titled stock: the measure that wrecks programs
This is the one most builders skip.
Titled stock is the share of remaining lots that are actually registered and ready to build on. In Queensland it is 97 per cent. In Victoria it is 46.
Two very different problems sit inside those numbers.
In Queensland, almost everything left is ready to go, but there is barely any of it. You are not shopping an open market. You are waiting on the next release. That is a timing problem, not a demand problem. The work is coming. It is queued.
In Victoria, the headline supply figure looks comfortable at 5.4 months, but more than half of it cannot be built on yet. A contract signed against untitled land is a contract with an unknown start date, and that is where build programs and cash flow come unstuck.
5. Corridors: where the state average falls apart
Everything above gets broken down by corridor. Twelve of them in Queensland, seven in Victoria. This is the point where the state figure stops being a number and starts being a range.
Logan sits at 0.2 months of supply. Brisbane sits at seven and a half. Same state, 45 minutes apart, with a difference of more than $600,000 on the dirt alone.
Victoria does the same thing, but it points somewhere less obvious. The tightest corridor in the state is not the Melbourne fringe. It is south west Victoria.
If you are planning volume off a state average, you are planning off a number that describes no corridor in particular.
6. The lot itself: frontage, format, and dollars per square metre
Frontage first. Queensland’s median has moved from 14 metres to 13.2. Victoria has gone from 14 to 13.1.
Then the format, and this is the part worth sitting with.
Because we price lots by size, you can see what you are paying per square metre rather than per block. In Queensland, a 250 square metre lot works out at $1,628 per square metre. A larger format comes in at $1,037.
That is roughly 50 per cent dearer per square metre for the smaller block. In Victoria the same gap is 22 per cent.
The whole lot price is what you negotiate. The dollars per square metre is what you design to.
The practical read is straightforward. Going narrower to hit a price point saves you far less on the dirt than the headline lot price makes it look. If your product plan for the next 12 months assumes small lots mean cheap land, check the rate, not the total.
Why we built this
Builders, suppliers and trades usually find out what the land market did after it has already done it. And usually from someone with something to sell them off the back of it.
That is a fair description of how land market intelligence has reached this industry for a long time. Most of it has been produced by parties holding a position in the outcome. The people telling you what land is worth are frequently the same people selling it, financing it, or marketing it.
We hold no position in the land. We sell the report. We do not sell you the dirt, and we do not sell you finance against it. That is the whole reason the numbers in here can be read straight.
This is the first edition, covering two states. The next editions roll out across the rest of Australia over the coming quarters, again with Terralytics.
The Good Builder Take
Six measures is a lot to hold at once. If you only act on three of them this week, make them these.
Pull months of supply and titled stock for the corridors you actually build in. Not the state. The corridor. A state figure that averages Logan and Brisbane describes neither.
Check whether anything in your current pipeline sits on untitled land, and work out your exposure if registration slips a quarter. In Victoria that is more than half the available stock.
Recalculate your land rate per square metre across your two most common lot formats. If narrow blocks are running 50 per cent dearer per square metre, that belongs in your pricing rather than quietly in your margin.
Frequently asked questions
It is how long the lots currently on the market would last at the current rate of sale. Around three months is considered balanced. Below three months, buyers are competing for limited stock. Above it, there is more choice and more negotiating room. Queensland is currently at 1.6 months and Victoria at 5.4.
Absorption is the share of available lots that clears in a month. It is a forward indicator, because land sells before a slab goes down. A corridor clearing most of its stock every month is a corridor where construction work will arrive within months, well before it shows up in approvals data.
Titled stock is the proportion of remaining lots that are registered and ready to build on. It matters because untitled land cannot be started, no matter what the supply figure says. Victoria sits at 46 per cent titled, which means a comfortable looking supply number overstates what is actually available to build on now.
Because the fixed costs of creating a lot, including services, roads and headworks, do not shrink in proportion to the block. In Queensland the gap between a 250 square metre lot and a larger format is around 50 per cent per square metre. In Victoria it is 22 per cent. Going narrower saves less on land than the total price suggests.
We use actual lot sales inside active estates across Queensland and Victoria, covering 26 consecutive quarters from 2020 through the middle of this year, with settlement data supplied by Terralytics. Every release and unsold lot is counted, and lots are classified by frontage and area to five centimetres and two square metres. Land that developers are still holding back is excluded.
Related articles
- From Bargain to Boom: How Brisbane Became Australia’s Land Price Hotspot
- Queensland Reopens Its South East Regional Plan, With Housing Supply at the Centre
- Queensland Housing Market Defies National Slowdown as Affordability Pressures Build
Get the reports
The Queensland and Victoria State of Land reports land. Twelve corridors in Queensland, seven in Victoria, 26 quarters of lot level data, and the price, supply, absorption, title and format numbers for every one of them.
The full walkthrough of what is inside is also on The Good Builder Podcast. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter for land, build and policy analysis written for builders.
Last updated: July 2026
This article is intended for general information purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Laws, regulations, and industry requirements vary by state and territory and change over time. Builders and trades professionals should seek independent advice relevant to their specific circumstances before making business, legal, or financial decisions.
0 Comments