One thing we can all agree on is that Trump is great for a headline.

There’s been a lot of noise out of the US lately. Trump’s back at it, throwing tariff-shaped grenades and rattling global trade. Feels like a rerun, doesn’t it? But the kicker is this: what’s happening on the other side of the world might actually help home builders here in Australia, at least for now. Major disclaimer though, try as we might, none of us can actually predict the future.

Trump has hit pause on higher tariffs for 90 days, reducing them to a flat 10 per cent, but what does that actually mean for Australia? On the surface, maybe not a whole lot.

Trump’s announcement mainly focused on suspending the tougher tariff hikes, with Australia falling under the general 10 per cent rate during this 90-day window. He also slapped a whopping 125% tariff on Chinese goods. It’s classic Trump energy, and it’s causing a stir globally.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese didn’t hold back in his response.

“This is not the act of a friend,” Albanese said.

“But we won’t join a race to the bottom that leads to higher prices and slower growth.”

Instead of retaliating with more tariffs, the Aussie government has rolled out a five-point plan to soften the blow, especially for industries like construction that rely on imported goods and steady trade relationships.

The biggest risk here isn’t the tariff itself; it’s the potential slowdown in China, Japan, and South Korea. These are three of our biggest trade partners, and if their economies suffer, we’ll feel it.

Here’s the unexpected twist: slower growth might push the RBA to cut interest rates.

As Pete put it on the Good Builder podcast this morning,

“It’s almost a lock now that the next RBA meeting will bring another rate cut… People can borrow more, and builders will probably see more activity in the market.”

Lower rates could be a real shot in the arm for the building industry. Pair that with possible drops in material prices as more global suppliers look to offload stock, and there’s a silver lining forming.

No Crystal Ball, But Here Is What We Know?

Here’s what’s confirmed:

• Australia now faces a 10% U.S. import tariff. Not ideal, but not a showstopper either.
• No retaliatory tariffs. Instead, a five-point plan to keep things moving.
• The RBA held rates at 4.1% in April. Analysts expect cuts in May and beyond. The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for May 20, 2025.
• Pressure could ease if global supply increases, especially out of Asia.

The five-point plan from the Albanese Government? It includes:

1. Boosting anti-dumping enforcement with $5 million to protect local industries like steel and aluminium.
2. A $50 million push to diversify export markets so we’re less reliant on one or two key trade partners.
3. A $20 million “Buy Australia” campaign to encourage locals to back homegrown products.
4. Zero-interest loans for export-focused businesses through a new $1 billion fund.
5. A critical minerals reserve to keep supply chains steady in the long term.

Not bad, all things considered.

Just don’t forget that we’ve got a Federal election looming too.

Author: Jonathan Tibbits

Starting his career as a lawyer, Jonathan transitioned into project management, compliance, and certification for companies throughout the industry supply chain in Australia and New Zealand. With international experience in green building, sustainability and stakeholder communication, he is passionate about innovation and building transparency and trust.