Not everyone’s got time for election chatter on Easter Sunday, but if after the long weekend you’re straight back into pricing up a job or trying to hire your next apprentice, the way government handles housing is going to hit you one way or another.

Both major parties are going hard on housing this election. Big targets. Big spending. But behind all the headlines, there’s one simple question: can any of it actually happen without enough trades?

Let’s unpack it.

A quick recap

The federal election campaign has well and truly kicked off, and we’re on the homestretch. In case you missed any of the headlines – housing is front and centre.

Labor’s promised 1.2 million new homes over five years. That’s backed by a $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund and a shared equity scheme called Help to Buy. The idea? You only need a 5% deposit, and the government chips in up to 40% of the home’s value.

There’s other promises on the table, that we’ve covered here.

Sound familiar? It’s not the first time we’ve heard big numbers, but it is the first time we’ve seen this kind of commitment to supply.

On the other side, Peter Dutton and the Coalition reckon we should pull back on demand. Their plan includes a two-year ban on foreign buyers, immigration caps, and a tax deduction on mortgage interest for new homebuyers.

Dutton summed it up by saying:

“I will be a prime minister who restores the dream of homeownership.”

Meanwhile, Housing Minister Clare O’Neil’s throwing the challenge back,

“We need a bold and ambitious target because boldness and ambition is exactly what is required here.”

It’s bold, alright. But is it buildable?

Let’s be honest, none of these plans work if there’s no one to build the houses.

The Housing Industry Association’s Chief Economist, Tim Reardon, didn’t mince words:

“We don’t have enough people.”

There’s a shortfall of around 80,000 workers in the construction industry already. Apprenticeships are down. Materials are tight. Builders are walking away from projects because the risk is too high.

So, yeah. A million homes sounds great on paper but not if your crew’s already stretched thin trying to finish a duplex in the suburbs.

Some economists are warning that these promises, especially on the demand side, might just push prices up without fixing the real issue.

One report put it bluntly: demand-side schemes like Help to Buy could just pour fuel on the fire unless we sort out the supply chain.

Others argue the Coalition’s plan won’t free up enough stock to make a real difference either. Banning some foreign buyers won’t help much if the problem is that local builders can’t deliver the builds.

The Greens are also in the mix, calling both plans half-baked and pushing for even more investment in social housing. But again, without enough workers, who’s doing the building?

What should you watch for?

This election, there’s more than just slogans on the line. If you’re in the industry, keep your eye on:

• What each party’s saying about the trades workforce
• Whether apprenticeships, training, and business supports are part of the package
• How planning reform and land release are being handled at the state level
• Whether there’s any talk about simplifying compliance for small builders.

If the solution is “build more homes” but no one’s checking if you’ve got the team to do it and we can’t develop the supporting infrastructure well, that’s not a solution. That’s a stitch-up.

We’re not here to tell you how to vote.

Happy Sunday.

Author: The Good Builder

The Good Builder is a media platform that provides news and insights for Australia’s home building industry. From exclusive stories and curated insights to bold industry perspectives, we deliver the news and updates that keep builders, suppliers, and the entire home building industry inspired and ahead of the curve.