If politics and federal budgets aren’t your thing, we’re assuming you didn’t click to read this anyway, so here we go.

Whether you’re on the tools, running a business, or trying to get a project over the line, a federal election always brings some uncertainty… and this year’s shaping up to be no different.

A possible change in government could see some big shifts in how trade capacity is addressed, what gets funded, and how the industry is supported. The Good Builder’s Peter Love put it plainly last week:

“A fairly underwhelming budget for the construction industry unfortunately.”

So what’s staying, what’s going, and what should you be keeping an eye on?

What’s getting cut?

If the opposition wins, a few of Labor’s headline programs could be on the chopping block.

Rewiring the Nation Fund – $20B, likely gone
This clean energy infrastructure spend isn’t directly tied to home building, but it’s still a significant national investment that’d disappear.

Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) – $10B, gone
Designed to back thousands of social and affordable homes, the HAFF is expected to be axed. That leaves 5,500 homes already under construction and 7,000+ in the pipeline in limbo. It’s not yet clear what happens next, whether these projects will be completed, paused, or scrapped altogether.

Help to Buy Scheme – most likely gone
The shared equity model helping lower-income Australians get into the market is another that’s tipped to go. Some argue it helped level the playing field a little; others saw it as overreach. Either way, it probably won’t be around much longer.

What’s being tabled?

So, what’s replacing these programs? A mix of workforce incentives, demand-side boosts, and a few curveballs.

$12k incentive for builders to hire apprentices
Instead of giving apprentices $2,000 a year directly, the proposal is to hand $12,000 to builders over two years to take them on. It’s a simple idea and a classic distinction between the two parties: support the employer, not just the trainee.

Super withdrawals for first home buyers
First home buyers would be allowed to pull up to $50k from their super to buy a home. It’s a move that could seriously boost demand, especially in the entry-level market. However, limited supply and not enough affordable land could also push prices higher.

$5B for trunk infrastructure
This one’s about helping projects get off the ground, literally. The plan is to invest $5 billion in trunk infrastructure (roads, water, power) to support shovel-ready developments. That’s more than three times what Labor had earmarked, and it could make a real difference in getting feasos to stack up.

CFMEU deregistration and new laws
A new AFP taskforce and anti-racketeering laws would come into play, targeting what’s seen as criminal elements in the industry. The CFMEU would be de-registered. For some, it’s long overdue. For others, it’s a red flag for worker protections. Either way, it would be a big shake-up.

The return of the long lunch
In a throwback move, businesses could claim up to $20k in entertainment and client lunches each year. It’s not a housing policy, but it’s a nod to small business culture. And hey, some of the best ideas still come out of a chat over a parma and pot.

Cut to migration and foreign student numbers
The opposition plans to reduce migration by 25%, keep bans on foreign investment in existing homes, and wind back foreign student numbers. The impact on demand will be moderate in the short term but could have a bigger flow-on effect to rental markets and the construction workforce over time.

The bottom line

The next few weeks will reveal more detail, and nothing’s locked in until the polls close. But if you’re in construction, now’s a good time to keep your ear to the ground.

After all, budgets and politics might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but when they shape how and where we build, it pays to know what’s coming.

If you haven’t read it yet, here is how we reported Labor’s recent budget announcement.

Author: The Good Builder

The Good Builder is a media platform that provides news and insights for Australia’s home building industry. From exclusive stories and curated insights to bold industry perspectives, we deliver the news and updates that keep builders, suppliers, and the entire home building industry inspired and ahead of the curve.