A Deep Dive into Queensland’s FY25 Housing Data

Queensland’s housing market continues to defy national slowdowns, posting a 13.2% rise in new house approvals across the 2024–25 financial year, according to the latest report from OpenLot, using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data.

The detailed small-area (SA2) analysis paints a clear picture of where growth is occurring and where pressure is building. South-east Queensland remains the state’s powerhouse, while regional markets are showing surprising strength, albeit with stark variations in building costs and affordability.

South-East Growth Corridors Dominate

The numbers confirm what many builders have been seeing on the ground: Ripley, Flagstone (West) – New Beith, and Caloundra West–Baringa continue to lead the state’s residential expansion.

• Ripley approvals climbed 29% to 1,371 new homes, reinforcing its reputation as Queensland’s fastest-growing housing corridor.
• Flagstone (West)–New Beith surged 42.5%, while Caloundra West–Baringa rose 18%, reflecting sustained demand across Greater Brisbane’s southern and coastal fringes.
• The Beaudesert and Jimboomba–Glenlogan regions also posted 50%+ growth, highlighting how the state’s south-west belt remains a magnet for affordable land and family buyers.

“Ripley and Flagstone are effectively becoming cities in their own right,” said one senior planner involved in south-east Queensland developments. “They’re no longer satellite suburbs, they’re employment, lifestyle and housing hubs.”

However, not all high-growth corridors are sharing the spoils. Yarrabilba saw approvals fall 36%, while Springfield Lakes declined 43%, suggesting that early-stage estates in these areas are now maturing and land supply is tightening.

Regional Towns Step Into the Spotlight

Beyond the south-east, Queensland’s regional lifestyle markets are booming, driven by migration trends and strong local economies.

• Highfields near Toowoomba recorded an increase of 120% in new home approvals.
• Gympie – North rose 188%, and Condon – Rasmussen in Townsville skyrocketed 1,362%, albeit from a smaller base.
• Eagleby (+447%) and Upper Caboolture (+424%) also posted extraordinary jumps, underscoring the migration from metropolitan Brisbane to outer-lifestyle regions.

The report highlights a widening gap between established regional centres and smaller inland towns, many of which continue to lag behind. For builders, this uneven growth presents both opportunity and risk: access to cheaper land and rising demand, but also limited infrastructure and escalating logistics costs.

Costs Climb as Demand Intensifies

While approvals are rising, the cost of building continues to escalate a persistent challenge for both volume and custom builders across Queensland.

The average building cost statewide increased 4.9% to $500,160, but the real story lies in localised spikes:

• Noosa Hinterland jumped 70% to $936,505, reflecting the surge in premium rural living.
• Maroochydore – Kuluin climbed 61% to $631,296.
• Airlie – Whitsundays soared 43%, nearly reaching $2 million per dwelling, the highest in Queensland.
• Bundaberg Surrounds – South rose 28%, while Birkdale climbed 18%, showing that cost inflation is not confined to coastal or high-end areas.

In contrast, Palm Island (-47%), Buderim – North (-43%), and Maryborough Surrounds – South (-23%) recorded declines, demonstrating cost volatility that often stems from fluctuating material prices and smaller sample sizes in regional data.

The Bigger Picture for Builders

The data reinforces a dual narrative shaping Queensland’s construction landscape:

1. Growth in population corridors driven by affordability, infrastructure delivery and lifestyle appeal continues to underpin housing demand.
2. Escalating build costs and supply-side pressures are reshaping what’s feasible for both builders and buyers.

For custom builders, this means recalibrating pricing models and carefully selecting regions where land supply, infrastructure and consumer demand align. For volume builders, the opportunity lies in scaling efficiently in growth areas like Ripley and Beaudesert, while maintaining flexibility to manage cost fluctuations.

The coastal and lifestyle shift seen in areas like Airlie, Noosa, and Yeppoon also signals that the premium regional market remains strong, appealing to high-income buyers seeking space, climate and quality construction.

Industry Outlook

Queensland’s performance stands out nationally. The state’s overall housing approvals rose more than any other major state across FY25, underpinned by record interstate migration and sustained public investment in transport and housing infrastructure.

However, the same factors driving demand, population growth and infrastructure investment are contributing to labour and material shortages, extending build times and intensifying cost pressures.

Industry analysts warn that unless productivity and approval systems improve, rising costs could quickly erode the affordability gains made in regional markets.

The report suggests that builders will need to lean into digital tools, offsite manufacturing, and streamlined project management systems to maintain margins in the face of rising costs.

What This Means for the Market

For builders, developers and suppliers, the OpenLot and ABS data highlights a clear direction:

• South-east Queensland remains the state’s growth engine, but competition is fierce.
• Regional Queensland is emerging as a serious frontier for affordable new housing.
• Build costs are climbing fastest in coastal lifestyle areas, making cost control and efficiency more critical than ever.

For policymakers, the challenge will be to support both ends of the spectrum streamlining approvals in growth corridors while ensuring regional centres have the infrastructure to sustain long-term housing demand.

A Market of Opportunity and Challenge

Queensland’s FY25 housing landscape reflects the complexity of building in a high-demand, high-cost environment.

The state’s growth story is far from uniform, some areas are booming, others plateauing, and builders must be more strategic than ever about where they focus their efforts.

As Queensland edges toward another record year of migration and construction activity, one thing remains clear: the opportunities are enormous for those who can manage cost, quality, and customer experience in tandem.

Author: TGB Editorial