New NCVER figures show trade commencements are still rising, but the rate of growth has fallen from almost 18 per cent to 2 per cent across three quarters, and the number of construction trades apprentices in training dropped again.

The number of people starting a trade apprenticeship in Australia is still growing. The rate at which it is growing has fallen away sharply.

Data released by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research on 15 September shows trade commencements in the March 2026 quarter were 2 per cent higher than the same quarter a year earlier. That is 625 additional contracts, taking the quarterly total to 31,735.

Two releases ago, in the September 2025 quarter, the equivalent figure was almost 18 per cent. In the December 2025 quarter it was 12.5 per cent. The trend is still positive. It is a much flatter line than the two quarters that came before it.

The growth is now concentrated in three occupations

Underneath the 2 per cent, the picture separates. Quarterly commencements for Electricians rose 19.0 per cent, up 1,095 to 6,870. Carpenters and Joiners rose 10.3 per cent, up 405 to 4,340. Plumbers rose 5.4 per cent, up 155 to 2,965. NCVER records quarterly commencements at record highs for Electricians and for Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanics.

Those are the occupations sitting on the national shortage list, and they are the ones holding the national figure above zero.

Across the full twelve months to 31 March 2026, trade commencements fell 1.1 per cent to 77,550. That is a fourth consecutive annual decline. NCVER attributes the fall to lower commencements among Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers, Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians, and Food Trades Workers.

So the quarterly recovery is real, and it is narrow. It is running in electrical, carpentry and plumbing, and it is not yet large enough to turn the annual number.

Construction trades in training fell again, to 60,290

Commencements measure the flow. In training measures the stock, and the stock kept falling.

At 31 March 2026 there were 289,090 active apprentice and trainee contracts nationally, down 9.0 per cent on a year earlier. Trade contracts fell 5.6 per cent to 216,000. Non trade contracts fell 17.6 per cent to 73,060.

Construction Trades Workers, the occupation group that carries carpenters and joiners and plumbers alongside the other site based building trades, fell 7.1 per cent over the year to 60,290. Since 2022 that group is down 15.5 per cent, the steepest fall of any trade occupation group over the period.

Electrotechnology and Telecommunications Trades Workers held almost flat at 57,915, down 0.5 per cent. Together with Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers, those three groups account for 82.8 per cent of every trade contract in training in the country.

What the in training figure counts

In training is a point in time count of active apprentice and trainee contracts at the end of the quarter. A contract is active once it has commenced, recommenced or been suspended, and has not been completed, cancelled, withdrawn or expired. Because it is a point in time measure, in training figures cannot be added together across quarters.

Record completions are emptying the pool faster than new starts refill it

Trade completions over the twelve months to March rose 9.9 per cent to 55,570. NCVER records record highs for Construction Trades Workers, Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers, and Electrotechnology and Telecommunications Trades Workers.

That is good news for the licensed workforce. More qualified tradespeople are reaching the far side of training than at any earlier point in the series.

It is also most of the explanation for the falling in training figure. NCVER links the surge to the flow through of the large commencement cohorts of 2021 and 2022. Those cohorts are now leaving through the completion door. The cohorts starting behind them are smaller, and they do not replace them one for one.

The cohorts that started in 2021 and 2022 are leaving through the completion door. The cohorts starting behind them are smaller.

Cancellations are running close to completions

Over the same twelve months, 52,065 trade contracts ended in cancellation or withdrawal, up 3.2 per cent. Set against 55,570 completions, that is close to one contract abandoned for every one finished.

The comparison needs a qualifier, and NCVER supplies it. Cancellations should be read alongside recommencements, because an apprentice who changes employer cancels one contract and starts another. Trade recommencements rose 5.5 per cent to 22,635 over the year.

Net of those recommencements, roughly 29,400 trade contracts ended over the year without producing a qualification. That is still more than half the completion total, and it sits underneath every commencement figure in the release.

In training numbers fell in every state and territory

Total contracts in training declined across all eight jurisdictions over the year. Tasmania fell 16.5 per cent to 7,735 and the Australian Capital Territory fell 17.3 per cent to 3,805. Victoria fell 11.7 per cent to 57,665, New South Wales 8.1 per cent to 85,950 and Queensland 7.3 per cent to 72,705.

The quarterly trade picture is better in some places than others. NCVER records improvements in trade commencements in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Victoria recorded the largest twelve month fall in trade commencements of any jurisdiction, down 1,495, in the same period that its employer licensing scheme has been moving through Parliament with a transition running to 2030.

A third of trade contracts sit with employers of five to 19 people

Construction employs 37.8 per cent of all apprentices and trainees in Australia, more than any other industry. Within the trades, 33.0 per cent of contracts sit with employers of five to 19 people, and 91.6 per cent of trade apprentices are employed full time.

That is the part of the release with the most direct bearing on a building business. The national recovery in trade starts is not being carried by large employers. It is being carried in large part by small builders deciding they have the work, the supervision capacity and the cash to put someone on.

TAFE institutes were the only provider type to record growth in trade commencements over the year, up 2.4 per cent, while every other provider type declined. Around 62.9 per cent of trade apprentices train with TAFE. And 90.5 per cent of quarterly commencements were newly commencing workers rather than existing staff moving onto a contract, which means the intake is arriving from outside the businesses that host it.

Female completions rose sharply in male dominated trades

Female trade commencements fell 9.7 per cent over the year, in line with the broader decline. Completions moved the other way. Female completions among Construction Trades Workers rose 43.0 per cent to 480, among Electrotechnology and Telecommunications Trades Workers 32.3 per cent to 755, and among Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers 29.5 per cent to 960.

The base is small. Four hundred and eighty completions against 55,570 trade completions nationally is well under 1 per cent. But the direction runs opposite to the headline, and it now holds across three occupation groups.

Trade completions also rose across every equity group NCVER tracks, led by people with a disability, up 19.0 per cent, and Indigenous apprentices and trainees, up 18.8 per cent. People with a disability were the only group to record a rise in trade contracts in training, up 3.9 per cent.

The figures will move before they settle

NCVER applies estimates to its most recent figures to account for the lag between an event happening and a jurisdiction reporting it. Those estimates are revised for up to seven quarters, which means numbers covering the last two years can change between releases.

That matters for how much weight a single quarter carries. The March quarter figure of 2 per cent growth is a first estimate. The December quarter figure of 12.5 per cent has already been through revision. Reading the direction across several releases is more reliable than reading any one of them closely.

What the last three releases show together is a recovery that peaked, narrowed and is now close to flat, while the pool of apprentices in training keeps emptying from the completion end.

The Good Builder Take

The commencement number is the one that gets reported, and on its own it is the least useful number in the release. Two per cent growth in a quarter, off a base that has fallen four years running, does not rebuild a workforce.

The number that decides whether the trade shortage eases is the one sitting between commencement and completion: how many of the people who start are still there in year three. Cancellations at 52,065 against completions of 55,570 says that number has not moved.

Almost every incentive currently in the system is pointed at the start of the pipeline. The leak is in the middle of it. Until something is aimed there, each quarterly release will keep reporting a recovery at the front end and a shrinking workforce behind it.

Frequently asked questions

RELATED ARTICLES

• Australian Construction Industry Trends Guide
• The Budget’s $10,000 Apprenticeship Payment Is Welcome. It Does Not Solve the Real Problem.
• Commencements Are Rising and the Construction Workforce Is Still Shrinking

Source: NCVER 2026, Apprentices and trainees 2026: March quarter, National Apprentice and Trainee Collection no. 128, June 2026 estimates, NCVER, Adelaide.

Last updated: 15 September 2026

General information only. This article reports publicly available statistical data and is not legal, financial or workforce planning advice. Figures are estimates subject to revision by the publishing agency. Readers should refer to the original data source and seek professional guidance relevant to their own circumstances.

Author: TGB Editorial